According to @cas_abbe, prediction market Polymarket is pricing an 84% probability that the U.S. government shutdown ends this week, reducing near-term policy risk for risk assets (source: Polymarket; source: @cas_abbe). @cas_abbe also notes that Stephen Miran is calling for a 50 bps rate cut in December, signaling potential policy easing and returning liquidity that @cas_abbe frames as bullish for BTC and ETH (source: @cas_abbe). For trading, monitoring Polymarket odds and any December rate-cut signaling is key as catalysts for crypto beta and funding conditions in the coming sessions (source: Polymarket; source: @cas_abbe).